There’s an important thing to note when making decisions on numbers like those I posted yesterday. What you’re using as a fundamental metric are probabilities and differences in those probabilities. Combined with point costs, this gives you a good idea about efficiency. However, efficiency doesn’t win games, effectiveness does. What you’re ultimately concerned about is the additional number of successes that you’ll get. For example:
20 Termagaunts who fire at BS3 can decide to take a twin-linked weapon or not. The chart I posted yesterday says that it will give you 50% more hits. Without twin-linked weapons, you’re going to average 10 hits. With the upgrade, you’re going to average 15 hits.
Now, as a contrived example because I can’t think of any real ones that fit, let’s say we’ve got 20 Veterans firing at BS5 that can also decide to take a twin-linked weapon or not. The chart I posted yesterday says that it will give you 16.7% more hits, which doesn’t sound like as much of a bargain, that’s only 1/3 of the boost that the Gaunts got! Without twin-linked weapons, you’re going to average 16.7 hits. With the upgrade, you’re going to average 19.4 hits, a net gain of 2.7 hits, which is more than half the gain of the Termagaunts, so it’s not as bad a deal as it seemed initially.
Yesterday’s chart came out of a question from Erich over whether a Twin-Linked, Strength 3 weapon was better than a single-shot, Strength 4 weapon. The answer, of course, is “it depends”. Against a Toughness 4 model, they’re actually the same (0.25 wounds per shot). Against a Toughness 3 model, twin-linked option fares a little better. Against a Toughness 5 model, the higher strength does better. And let’s not forget that the S4 weapon has a chance to glance a vehicle with 10 armor, while the S3 weapon does not. Unless it’s a Gauss or Melta or an Armourbane weapon. And so on.
So the lesson here is that if you’re not entirely comfortable with probabilities, read these tables carefully, as boiling something down to a single number is rarely going to be accurate when there are as many variables as a game like 40k has. Fortunately, the game can’t always be boiled down to a simple, logical “no brainer”, because that would be terribly boring.